New launch or resale won't decide your profit. Your entry price will.

Free · out within one working day

Get your Entry Price Check

Tell me the project or area you're looking at. I pull that project's own caveat record for your floor band and size, put the district's going rate beside it, and tell you where the asking price sits: above, at, or below what the next buyer has been paying.

Full namePlease enter your name.

Mobile / WhatsApp

+65

Enter an 8-digit Singapore mobile starting with 8 or 9.

EmailPlease enter a valid email.

Project or area you're consideringName a project, or an area if you're still deciding.

I'm looking at

A new launch A resale unit Comparing both A unit I already own

Pick one so I know which record to pull.

BudgetChoose a budget band.

TimelineChoose a timeline.

No obligation, no hard sell. You get one page with the numbers, and a WhatsApp message from me to walk you through it if you want.

By sending this you agree to be contacted by phone, SMS, email or WhatsApp about your request, under the PDPA. Tell us to stop at any time and we will.

Is this you?

The advice you're getting is about the type. The record is about the price.

Most of the people who message me are stuck on the same question, and it's the wrong one.

✓

The agent says new launch. My friend says resale. Both sound sure, and neither has shown me a single caveat.

✓

The showflat is quoting S$2,400 psf. The condo across the road resells at S$1,700. Is that gap paying for something, or is it just the gap?

✓

I'm being told to book early before the developer raises prices. Is that a reason, or a sales line?

✓

I bought in 2022. I still don't know whether that was a good entry or a hopeful one.

✓

I want to buy once, hold five to eight years, and not be the buyer that somebody else made their profit from.

✓

I'd like someone to show me the numbers before I'm asked to pay a booking fee.

The record · part 1

Both routes made money. That is the point.

I took every non-landed condo sale in the URA caveat record from January 2025 to September 2026 and asked one question of each: what did the same project sell the same floor band and size for in 2021–22? If the earlier buyer bought from the developer, it counts as a new-launch entry. If they bought resale, it counts as a resale entry.

By segment, 2021–22 entry to 2025–26 exit

Segment	New-launch entry	Exits	Resale entry	Exits
CCR	+9.1%	18	+8.1%	734
RCR	+14.6%	70	+16.3%	1,811
OCR	+16.1%	193	+19.7%	5,175
All	+15.3%	281	+17.8%	7,720

Swipe to see all columns

Median change in psf. Exits are sub-sales and resales, Jan 2025 – Sep 2026, in projects with a 2021–22 sale of the same floor band and strata size. New-launch entries: developer sales Oct 2021 – Dec 2022 in projects that launched in that window (12 projects). Resale entries: resales Sep 2021 – Dec 2022 (456 projects). 93% of new-launch exits and 96% of resale exits were above their entry. URA caveat data, retrieved 14 Sep 2026.

Same district, same years, side by side

District	New launch	Entry psf	Resale	Entry psf
D8 · Piccadilly Grand	+15.7%	2,102	+19.9%	1,697
D15 · Liv @ MB	+15.4%	2,299	+15.4%	1,547
D16 · Sky Eden @ Bedok	+15.3%	2,107	+20.5%	1,258
D18 · Pasir Ris 8	+1.4%	2,068	+22.1%	1,163
D20 · Amo Residence	+20.9%	2,073	+17.9%	1,629
D26 · Lentor Modern	+16.4%	2,048	+27.1%	1,087
D27 · The Commodore	+16.4%	1,517	+15.9%	1,117
D10 · Perfect Ten, One Holland Village	+8.2%	3,004	+11.9%	1,929

Swipe to see all columns

Median gain and median entry psf, same windows as the left table. New launch column: exits in the named project(s). Resale column: every matched resale exit in that district. Exit counts: D8 36/48 · D15 22/484 · D16 13/538 · D18 38/892 · D20 39/275 · D26 61/70 · D27 42/333 · D10 15/275. Pasir Ris 8 launched Jul 2021; its entries here are developer sales from Oct 2021 onwards.

Read across the rows. In two districts the new launch did better. In six the resale did. In D18 the gap was +1.4% against +22.1%, and the thing separating the two groups of buyers was the S$905 psf between their entry prices. New launch or resale was not the decision that made the money.

The record · part 2

The price you pay against the building's own rate

Now take the same exits and sort the earlier buyers by one thing: how their entry psf compared with the median every other buyer in that project was paying at the time. Same buildings, same years. Only the entry price changes.

Resale entries, 2021–22

Entry vs project median	Exits	Median gain	Above entry
More than 10% above	462	+11.4%	90%
5–10% above	1,007	+13.7%	92%
Within 5%	4,979	+18.1%	97%
5–10% below	847	+24.4%	97%
More than 10% below	425	+24.8%	98%

Swipe to see all columns

7,720 resale exits, Jan 2025 – Sep 2026. "Project median" is the median resale psf of that project across Sep 2021 – Dec 2022; the entry is the median psf of 2021–22 resales of the same floor band and size. URA caveat data, retrieved 14 Sep 2026.

New-launch entries, 2021–22

Entry vs launch median	Exits	Median gain	Above entry
More than 5% above	45	+2.9%	73%
Within 5%	178	+15.7%	96%
More than 5% below	58	+16.8%	100%

Swipe to see all columns

281 sub-sale and resale exits in 12 projects that launched Oct 2021 – Dec 2022. "Launch median" is the median developer psf in the project's first three months. Small sample in the top row; read it as a direction, not a forecast.

Same building, five steps of entry price, five steps of profit. Paying 10% over your neighbours' rate did not stop you making money. It halved it. And in a new launch, the buyers who came in above the launch median made +2.9% against +16.8% for those below it.

The record · part 3

Same project. Same floor band. Same size. Different profit.

Lentor Modern launched in September 2022 and the developer had sold 521 units by the end of that year. The price for one floor band and one size was never a single number. 61 of those units have since changed hands, at a median of S$2,403 psf against a launch median of S$2,107. Here is what the spread at entry did to the spread at exit.

URA does not record the stack or the facing, so part of each range is the view you paid for. That is the point: the facing premium is part of the entry price, and the resale buyer does not always pay it back.

Floor · size	Cheapest entry made	Priciest entry made	Developer psf, 2022	Sub-sale psf, 2025–26
16–20 · 678 sq ft	+13.5%	−8.0%	2,124 – 2,324	2,138 – 2,411
21–25 · 732 sq ft	+16.5%	−3.2%	2,228 – 2,513	2,432 – 2,596
06–10 · 678 sq ft	+7.9%	−1.3%	2,022 – 2,158	2,131 – 2,182
11–15 · 732 sq ft	+22.2%	+1.3%	2,080 – 2,359	2,391 – 2,541
16–20 · 732 sq ft	+21.0%	+2.8%	2,123 – 2,471	2,541 – 2,568
06–10 · 1,109 sq ft	+27.9%	+3.6%	1,887 – 2,073	2,147 – 2,413
06–10 · 990 sq ft	+22.6%	+13.0%	1,972 – 2,014	2,277 – 2,419

Swipe to see all columns

Lentor Modern, D26. Developer sales Sep – Dec 2022 grouped by URA floor range and strata size (10 to 35 caveats per row); sub-sales Jan 2025 – Sep 2026 in the same group (2 to 7 per row). "Cheapest entry" = highest exit against the lowest developer price in the row; "Priciest entry" = lowest exit against the highest. Results before stamp duty, SSD and costs. Past transactions do not predict future returns.

The record · part 4

What the buyers who lost money paid, and what the ones who gained the most paid

256 projects had ten or more resales in both windows. The median project moved +20.2%. Eight went backwards. Here are the six at each end.

Bought 2021–22, worth less now

Project	2021–22 psf	2025–26 psf	Change
Marina One Residences · D1	2,390	1,908	−20.1%
Corals at Keppel Bay · D4	2,560	2,091	−18.3%
V on Shenton · D1	2,153	1,885	−12.4%
The Coast at Sentosa Cove · D4	1,670	1,521	−8.9%
Lakepoint Condominium · D22	882	830	−5.9%
OUE Twin Peaks · D9	2,279	2,156	−5.4%

Swipe to see all columns

Bought 2021–22, worth the most more now

Project	2021–22 psf	2025–26 psf	Change
River Isles · D19	1,115	1,554	+39.4%
Waterfront Isle · D16	1,276	1,763	+38.1%
Parc Vera · D19	1,142	1,578	+38.1%
Waterview · D18	1,095	1,502	+37.1%
Kovan Melody · D19	1,319	1,806	+37.0%
The Luxurie · D19	1,265	1,729	+36.7%

Swipe to see all columns

Median resale psf, Sep 2021 – Dec 2022 against Oct 2025 – Sep 2026, non-landed strata, projects with at least 10 resales in each window (all twelve are 99-year leasehold). Caveat counts, worst six: 96/49 · 15/10 · 26/21 · 13/14 · 10/12 · 13/25. Best six: 54/22 · 44/17 · 22/13 · 63/15 · 44/22 · 57/22. URA caveat data, retrieved 14 Sep 2026.

Location and lease played their part. The left column is mostly waterfront and Marina Bay; the right is Punggol, Bedok and Pasir Ris. But look at the entry prices. The buyers who lost paid S$1,670 to S$2,560 psf for a number the next buyer would not match. The buyers who gained the most paid S$1,095 to S$1,319, and the next buyer paid more. That is the whole thesis in twelve rows.

How I check an entry price

Four things I look at before I tell anyone a price is fair

This is the same check I run on every unit my clients consider, whether it's a showflat or a listing. It takes me under a day because the data is already pulled.

1The project's own record

Every caveat, launch to now

Not the average for the project. The range for your floor band and your size, from the first developer sale to last month, so you can see where the asking price sits inside it.

2The district's going rate

What resale buyers pay next door

The median psf resale buyers are paying for the same size within the district today. If the new-launch premium over that is above 30%, I want to know what the extra is buying.

3The exit buyer

Who buys it from you, and against what

In five to eight years someone compares your unit with what's around it then, including the launches that haven't happened yet. I overlay the supply that is coming.

4One number

The psf at which it works

I give you the entry psf at which the unit makes sense for your hold, and the psf above which the profit is going to someone else. Then you decide.

What you get

The Entry Price Check, free, on the unit you're actually considering

One page, built for the project or area you name in the form. No brochure, no launch of the week. If the asking price is above what the record supports, I'll say so and tell you what number would change my mind.

Out within one working day Free · no obligation URA caveat data, not portal asking prices

Check my entry price

1
Your floor band and size, launch to nowThe full caveat range for the unit type you're looking at, in that project.
2
The district's going rate beside itWhat resale buyers are paying for the same size in the district this year.
3
Where the asking price sitsAbove, at, or below the project's own median, in psf and in dollars on your unit.
4
What the exit buyer will compare it withThe launches and resale stock that will be sitting next to yours when you sell.
5
The numberThe entry psf at which the unit works for your hold, and the psf above which I'd walk away.

Who is checking

Stella Thio, PropNex

I trained in economics and statistics before I sold property, and I have run the developer side of the table as well as the buyer side. That is why I keep coming back to the caveat record: it is the only thing in this industry nobody can argue with.

✓Project Chief for 14 Core Central Region developments
✓PropNex Millionaire, five years running, 2020–2024
✓Six-time Champion Luxury Tagger
✓Former Senior Dealing Director · NUS Economics & Statistics
✓CEA registration [CEA no.] · PropNex Realty Pte Ltd (L3008022J)

"I don't mind whether you buy new or resale. I mind what you pay, because that's the one number you can't change afterwards."Stella Thio

From clients